MSG-213 M&S in support of Building Resilience and Refugee Flow Management

MSG-213 M&S in support of Building Resilience and Refugee Flow Management

MSG-213 M&S in support of Building Resilience and Refugee Flow ManagementDate: (18-11-2022)
City: Sofia
Location: Sofia
Classification: NATO Unclassified


- Resilience involves all human activity and the influences on that activity. While this is not an officially NATO endorsed Operational Domain, it is a common term of art in several nations when assessing the Operational Environment;

- The large masses of people movement is a permanent event in human history. It is related to other big scale events like disasters or crises (including any kind of military operation);

- The movement itself may actually shift the crisis to another location or to generate second order effects.The people movement management is a complex task due to the scale of the event;

- The movement is provoked by the difference in the living systems parameters. Societal Resilience is part of the characteristics. Degradation of Societal Resilience could cause flow of people and at same time the host country Resilience is affected.



- Response Planning is a comprehensive process. While planning is a core task to all military activities, Response Planning specifically focuses on Emergency planning issues, including Risk, Crisis and Consequence Management actions;

- The people flow is an unavoidable factor during military activities on any stage of the processing and should be taken into account. The comprehensive understanding of the specific realization gives the decision-makers the ability to manage the situation, to plan and perform military operations according to this phenomenon.



Definition of set of parameters correlated with the large masses of people movement. Data filtration and recognition of threats through social networks. Definition of the coefficients elaborating the large masses of people movement mathematical model. AI data processing.



The planned deliverables could be categorized in different levels – conceptual: building a mathematical model of the movement of large masses of people, operational: building an algorithm for automatic data collection to feed the mathematical model, development of management logic for mass movement control, tactical: application to compute the model results and to simulate the movement, interface to connect the engine with C2 and Sim systems, interface to manipulate the model parameters and to apply management measures in virtual or real environment.



- Gathering, storing and dissemination of raw data and information with situational awareness;

- Modeling of a large masses of people movement;

- Development of AI based data collection and processing;

- Development of management logic for mass movement control



  The desired synergy effect is possible as a combination of several existing technologies. The integrity will shrink the low level tasks and efforts and will feed the human operator/decision-maker with necessary information for high-level analyses and management.



The research should meet the needs of NATO (SHAPE, JFCs) and the NATO member countries to predict, monitor and control the movement of large masses of people and influence national and Alliance resilience. It will improve the Alliance Resilience and NATO members in particular in crisis and big scale disasters.


Activity Start Date - 18 Nov 2022

Activity End Date   - 18 Nov 2023 






The group is open for participation: NATO countries, NATO partners, NATO organizations, STO EOP


Security Classification Level or Marking of the Activity: NATO Unclassified (NU)

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